With just over a week before the midterm elections, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) released its most recent estimate, revealing continued momentum for Republican candidates. DDHQ forecasts that Republicans will gain control of the U.S. Senate on November 8. While the 51-49 vote difference is slim, it would be enough to push Chuck Schumer and his fellow Democrats back into the minority in the upper chamber of Congress.
🚨 Republicans are favored to win control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since we released our 2022 Elections Forecast. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 50.4% chance of control, and our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D).https://t.co/UHhMBpQqvL
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
The only remaining competitive races for the U.S. Senate are in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin are all considered “Lean” or “Likely” Republican contests. After more than 14 million simulations to determine potential election-night outcomes, their model now predicts Republicans have a 50.4% chance of winning control of the Senate following the midterm elections.
The DDHQ model has shifted toward Republican control by 6.3% in the past week and 14.2% in the past month, underscoring the possibility of a “red wave.” The Pennsylvania Senate race, where Dr. Mehmet Oz has taken a three-point polling lead over Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman, is one of the most significant indicators of GOP momentum. According to DDHQ’s model, Oz has a 53.1% chance of winning the competition.
DDHQ’s model also estimates Republicans have a 76.7% chance of unseating Speaker Pelosi and seizing control of the House of Representatives, giving the GOP a 230-205 majority.
