Internal Polling Signals Big Losses for Democrats in November

New internal Democratic Party polling shows the party losing in November’s congressional elections. Democrats on the fence in the 2018 election were told last week at a meeting with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney that in competitive districts, the generic Republican is leading the generic Democrat by a staggering eight points, 47-39.

Punchbowl News explained, “Given that Democrats generally have a three or four-point built-in advantage on the generic ballot, this is a particularly concerning development for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority,” A recent NBC survey showed President Biden’s approval rating was in the high thirties. If it doesn’t improve, Biden will have the lowest approval rating at the time of the midterm election since Democrat Harry Truman in 1946.

According to the Congressional Leadership Fund (CFL), a GOP super PAC, “The average incumbent Democrat was at only 44% on the ballot in these districts — perilous shape, especially for deep blue districts — and had a 38% favorable rating and 25% unfavorable rating.” Additionally, the CFL reported that “Biden +8 districts are now ‘tossups.’ CLF polled 16 districts that Joe Biden won an average of 8 points. In those districts, the generic ballot was TIED and Joe Biden’s approval was -8%.”

Republicans will reportedly win a majority in the House of Representatives if they flip just five seats in Congress in November. In non-presidential election years, the party with its president in the White House usually loses seats. In 2010, Barack Obama and the Democrats lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives; in 2018, Donald Trump and the Republicans lost 41 seats. Both times, the House was taken over by the opposing party. Since the end of World War II in 1945, only one president’s party has gained seats in the House of Representatives during his first midterm election: George W. Bush in 2002, when the Republicans won eight House seats.

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